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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.