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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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